Adaptation Support

Golden Gate Biosphere Region Climate Adaptation Project

Overview

EcoAdapt has partnered with the Golden Gate Biosphere Network (GGBN) to conduct vulnerability assessments and develop climate-informed adaptation strategies for focal ecosystems and species in the Golden Gate Biosphere (GGB) region, which encompasses the Bay Area of California. This effort will integrate existing, best available science with an expert elicitation process, and will be used to inform regional planning processes and land management practices.

Project timeline: Summer 2022 – Summer 2024

Objectives

The overarching goal of this project is to integrate existing, best available science with an expert elicitation process to improve understanding of whether and how important natural resources in the Golden Gate Biosphere region may be vulnerable to changing climate conditions and what management actions can be implemented to reduce vulnerabilities and/or increase resilience of those resources. Project objectives include:

Introduce GGBN members and stakeholders to climate vulnerability and adaptation principles, tools, and strategies relevant to the GGB region;
In partnership with Pepperwood Preserve, use downscaled climate data derived from the Terrestrial Biodiversity and Climate Change Collaborative (TBC3) knowledge base to create customized maps of projected changes in climate variables and their potential impacts on vegetation distribution for the project area, which can be used to inform workshops and serve as useful reference for organizations;
Generate vulnerability assessment summaries and vulnerability-adaptation briefs for habitats and species of management interest within the project area, as well as a project synthesis report; and
Help identify practical applications and next steps for GGBN members and stakeholders to incorporate information into their project work and organizations.

Workshops & Events

This project involves a series of two workshops held with members of the Golden Gate Biosphere Network (GGBN):

Vulnerability Assessment: A two-day virtual workshop focused on assessing the climate change vulnerability of 21 stakeholder-identified focal ecosystems and species within the Golden Gate Biosphere. December 2022
Adaptation Planning: A two-day in-person workshop focused on developing climate-informed adaptation strategies and actions for focal ecosystems and species, while also building the capacity of GGBN members to understand and incorporate information about expected climate impacts and vulnerability into conservation planning and management. December 2023

Products

Synthesis report for the Golden Gate Biosphere Climate Adaptation Project

Vulnerability Assessment Summaries & Vulnerability-Adaptation Briefs

For each of the 22 focal resources below, EcoAdapt created a document summarizing results of the vulnerability assessment and literature review as well as a 2-3 page brief outlining key vulnerabilities and a suite of adaptation strategies and actions that may serve as a starting point for developing site- or species-specific management plans in the Golden Gate Biosphere region.

Ecosystems:

Coastal dunes: Summary Brief

Coastal prairie: Summary Brief

Coastal redwood forests: Summary Brief

Coastal scrub: Summary Brief

Freshwater marshes: Summary Brief

Maritime chaparral: Summary Brief

Mixed evergreen forests: Summary Brief

Open oak woodlands and savannas: Summary Brief

Riparian forests and woodlands: Summary Brief

Tidal marshes: Summary Brief

Species:

Belted kingfisher: Summary Brief

California black oak: Summary Brief

California red-legged frog: Summary Brief

Coho and steelhead: Summary Brief

Mission blue butterfly: Summary Brief

Mountain lion: Summary Brief

San Bruno elfin butterfly: Summary Brief

San Francisco common yellowthroat: Summary Brief

Sanderling: Summary Brief

Serpentine endemic rare plants: Summary Brief

Western leatherwood: Summary Brief

Spatial Analysis

EcoAdapt partnered with Pepperwood Preserve and the Conservation Biology Institute to model future changes in climate changes (e.g., temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, hydrology, and wildfire) and vegetation distribution.

Databasin gallery for the Golden Gate Biosphere Climate Adaptation Project and ArcGIS Online link (all spatial datasets are available in both of these locations)
Henifin, K. 2024. Projected Climate Scenarios for the Golden Gate Biosphere Network Climate and Vegetation Vulnerability Assessment (methodology and discussion for climate modeling work conducted by Pepperwood Preserve)
Syphard, A. and H. Rustigian-Romsos. 2024. Modeling the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of six priority plants within the Golden Gate Biosphere Network (methodology and outline of results with accompanying maps for species distribution modeling work conducted by the Conservation Biology Institute)

Think Biosphere: A Climate-Wise Wildlife Corridor Planning Toolkit for the Golden Gate Biosphere (report prepared by Marina Stern, University of California Berkeley, as part of her thesis project; contact her directly at marina_stern@berkeley.edu to obtain a copy of her full thesis or spatial datasets)